C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KABUL 000643
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/FO DAS GASTRIGHT, SCA/A, S/CRS, S/CT,
EUR/RPM, INL/CIVPOL
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG,
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN
OSD FOR SHIVERS
CENTCOM FOR CSTC-A, CG CJTF-76, POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2017
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, MARR, KJUS, ASEC, PTER, AF
SUBJECT: DIAG: STALLED AND SEARCHING FOR MOMENTUM
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Neumann for reasons 1.4 (b) (d)
1. (C//REL/) Summary: President Karzai chaired a
meeting of cabinet ministers and international
community representatives February 7 to review
progress made to date by the Disbandment of Illegally
Armed Groups (DIAG) program and to approve formally
the new DIAG Action Plan. While the revised action
plan is designed to ensure greater political support
at all levels and to move responsibility for DIAG
operations into the line ministries, especially
Ministry of Interior, the discussion never got around
to the action plan. President Karzai opened and
closed the meeting by noting that the program was
important and should go forward, but that the
environment was "delicate." While there was strong
support for reinvigorating the program from some
participants, notably the Japanese, and to a lesser
extent from the EU, the discussion among the Afghan
participants highlighted the many problems and
challenges facing the program. Fairly pointed
criticism of the program's lack of accomplishment and
focus came both from Afghans and international
partners. In the end, Karzai declared the program
should go forward with greater speed, but that all
should keep in mind the challenge of reconciling
momentum with sensitivity to security concerns. While
an incremental increase in DIAG activity could
conceivably take place in some areas of the country,
it is clear that process is stalled and no one knows
how to invigorate it in the midst of the current level
of fighting End Summary.
2. (C//REL/) Following an uninspiring presentation
by First Vice President Khalili consisting mainly of a
recitation of the details of the 28,700 weapons and
explosives collected thus far under DIAG, Afghans and
international partners alike struggled unsuccessfully
to articulate a vision for a reinvigorated DIAG
process that would reinforce the government's
authority and make a real difference in the security
situation on the ground.
International Community Concerns and Themes
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3. (C//REL/) Views from the international community
representatives fell broadly into two categories:
those who wanted to restructure and refocus the DIAG
program, learning lessons from past mistakes, and
those who wanted to move forward quickly, arguing that
DIAG was too important to dismantle and restructure.
There was considerable overlap in these two views and
even those with significant criticisms of the program
acknowledged that long term security could not be
achieved without DIAG. Several stressed the need for
Presidential intervention to remove political
obstacles. The Canadian Ambassador stressed the need
for responsibility and ownership at the ministerial
level, noting that his government had invested
resources but didn't see results. The EU
representative made an important distinction between
quality and quantity, sensibly urging that DIAG focus
on "weapons that threaten the population," rather than
being strictly the numbers game that it has been in
the past. The Ambassador of Japan, the "lead nation"
for DIAG, on the other hand, declared that his country
was satisfied with the progress to date and that
Japanese people understand it is a difficult problem.
(Note: when queried later whether this was truly the
Japanese view, or merely a positive statement for
tactical purposes, he reiterated this position. End
note.) The Dutch charge said that while the momentum
is stalled at the moment, the program needs to move
forward.
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The View from the Afghan Side
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4. (C//REL/) Several of the Afghan participants,
notably NDS chief Amarullah Saleh offered criticism as
severe as anything from the international side.
Claiming that the incentives were not working, Saleh
cited a "lack of courage" in the security services to
move against illegal armed groups when NDS provided
information on them. Public confidence is weak
because of the lack of loyalty and confidence in the
security structures. The typically exuberant Attorney
General Sabit suggested that the president sign a
proclamation stating that after a date certain all
persons possessing unlicensed weapons will be
prosecuted, but his own colleagues dismissed the
suggestion as impractical. The Minister of Interior
unhelpfully suggested that DIAG was hampered by lack
of infrastructure and could not move forward until the
GOA had buildings from which to operate in all the
districts, a comment which was privately derided by
one of his colleagues after the meeting.
Not with a Bang but a Whimper...
--------------------------------
5. (C//REL/) Perhaps drawing comfort from the one
bright spot, the relatively successful strategic
communications and public affairs component of the
program, President Karzai noted that the concept had
strong support from the public and said that he
regularly receives requests from around the country to
increase DIAG activity. He concluded by promising to
raise DIAG from time to time in the Policy Action
Group (PAG).
Comment
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6. (C//REL/) Frustration with the slow pace of
progress on DIAG is nothing new. DIAG, as a concept,
has strong Afghan and international support, however -
reflecting political and security realities on the
ground - implementation has not lived up to its
promises. Many of the keys to successfully
implementing DIAG in the long term, including
strengthening leadership at the Ministry of Interior
and expanding the reach of the police and security
services across the country, are also keys to
defeating the ongoing insurgency in the short to
medium term. President Karzai, while offer symbolic
support for DIAG, correctly appears more focused on
strengthening his government and defeating the
insurgency as his immediate priority. DIAG still has
significant long term support. But many private
discussions indicate that Ambassadors and Afghans
alike share the perception that progress will require
development of greater confidence that the GOA can
protect those who disarm, and threaten those who do
not.
NEUMANN