C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000247
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: EN, MARR, MOPS, PGOV, PREL
SUBJECT: ESTONIA'S NEW GOVERNMENT (PART III): FOREIGN AND
DEFENSE POLICY PRIORITIES
Classified By: CDA Jeff Goldstein for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d).
1. (C) Summary. The new Estonian government's foreign and
security policy priorities include strong relations with
the U.S. and NATO, Afghanistan, better Estonia-Russia
relations, and promoting democracy and stability in the
region. The new government supports continued engagement
in Iraq, but this is somewhat more controversial and a
lower priority than Afghanistan. When it comes time to
making a decision on whether or not to extend the mandate
of Estonia's troops in Iraq late this year, a key factor
will be what we are saying at the time about the future of
our own deployments there. Although the new government
pledges to continue to be pragmatic in its relations with
Russia, sensitive issues such as the fate of the Soviet-era
World War II Bronze Soldier monument will make progress in
the relationship difficult. On the security side of the
house, the government is committed to funding efforts to
further modernize Estonia's military and to continue active
involvement in missions abroad. Lack of bodies, however,
may make it difficult in the medium term for Estonia to
staff all of the ambitious deployments to which it has or
would like to commit. End Summary.
Strong Relations with the U.S. And NATO
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2. (U) The new government's coalition agreement prioritizes
maintaining "good relations with the United States" and
emphasizes the need for Estonia to take an active role in
strengthening the partnership between the European Union
(EU) and the United States. The new government supports
the idea of signing the Transatlantic Partnership. Our
contacts in the Reform Party tell us that the GOE will
continue to work with like-minded countries within the EU
to encourage cooperation with the United States in
strategic areas such as energy security and EU-Russia
relations.
3. (U) The government has also pledged its commitment to
NATO and meeting its NATO obligations to transform its
armed forces. The coalition agreement outlines the
government's transformation goals as "modernity, mobility,
rapid reaction capacity, and the development of specialized
capacities." The agreement specifically commits the
government to spend 2% of GDP on defense by 2010. (Note:
Estonia currently spends 1.84% of GDP on defense. End
Note.) Due to a fast-growing economy (11.4% real GDP
growth in 2006), the government is confident that it will
meet this target. The increased funding will go toward
continued military modernization for greater efficiency,
and interoperability within NATO. The government has also
pledged to add up to a third of a battalion in further
troop contributions to NATO's Rapid Reaction Force and the
EU's Nordic Battle Group in order to make "Estonia more
known in the world".
4. (C) Although its transformation targets are ambitious,
the new government will not do away with mandatory
conscription. Coalition partners Reform and IRL are in
sharp disagreement over this issue. The previous Defense
Minister, Jurgen Ligi (Reform), publicly battled for a
professional, all volunteer army. However, his IRL
successor, Jaak Aaviksoo, is a defender of the current
system of conscription. In an April 4 interview to
Postimees, Estonia's paper of record, Aaviksoo said
conscription has an important civic and military
educational function for young people. With only 233-265
deployable troops, the Estonian Defense Force (EDF) is
already struggling to meet its current commitments. With
the government unwilling to abolish mandatory conscription,
its ambitions for "increasing Estonia's involvement in the
world" may be constrained by its limited resources.
Prioritizing Afghanistan over Iraq
----------------------------------
5. (SBU) In keeping with the government's prioritization of
NATO missions, the coalition agreement specifically
highlights Afghanistan as one of its highest foreign policy
priorities. According to Andreas Kaju, Advisor to Defense
Minister Jaak Aaviksoo, there is broad and deep support in
the government over Afghanistan. Even our interlocutors
from the opposition - Center Party, People's Union, and the
Greens - have expressed their support for Estonia's role in
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Afghanistan.
6. (C) In contrast to Afghanistan, the coalition agreement
only obliquely refers to Estonia's Iraq mission within the
context of Estonia's contribution to international
development cooperation and development aid. While it was
not an issue during the elections, Estonia's involvement in
Iraq remains widely unpopular with the public. Government
interlocutors have assured us that the government will seek
another extension this fall if there is another UN Mandate.
7. (C) Our interlocutors all agreed that the government is
in no hurry over the Iraq mission. Both the government and
opposition are watching the political debate in the United
States, postponing any decision on Iraq until it becomes
clearer if the United States will begin withdrawing its own
forces. Since the new government has pledged to increase
Estonia's contribution to international development
cooperation and development assistance, Reform
interlocutors have indicated to us that the government
would continue assistance for Iraqi reconstruction
independent of its military contribution.
Estonia-Russia Relations
------------------------
8. (SBU) The coalition agreement calls for "concrete and
practical initiatives for developing relationships between
Estonia and Russia." The government is keen to have its
foreign policy "move beyond Russia", as some MFA
interlocutors have put it. As a result, the GOE will
continue to focus on concrete, cross-border cooperation in
the areas of transport infrastructure, law enforcement,
health, education, and culture. The agreement makes no
mention of trying to resuscitate and finalize the border
treaty between Estonia and Russia.
9. (C) Still, the new government's desire for a more
tranquil and cooperative relationship with Moscow may be
set back by its plans to remove a World War II era statue,
the "Bronze Soldier," and by plans to increase people's
awareness of crimes committed under both Communism and
Nazism. Removal of the Bronze Soldier is especially likely
to elicit a volatile response from Moscow. Reform
continues to be the driving force behind removing the
Bronze Soldier. Reform interlocutors likened their actions
regarding the statue in particular, and re-addressing the
crimes committed under Communism in general, to "lancing a
boil" - painful but necessary for the long-term health of
the country. One prominent Reform leader told us off the
record, "If it wasn't (the statue) Moscow would find
something else to criticize us for...that's how the
Russians are."
Promoting Democracy and Stability in the Region
--------------------------------------------- --
10. (SBU) Promoting democracy and stability in the region
is the government's fourth key foreign policy priority.
The coalition agreement highlights Georgia, Ukraine, and
Moldova as priority countries for development assistance.
The government will continue to support technical
assistance projects and to strengthen these fledgling
democracies by bringing their civil servants, law
enforcement officials, border guards, and military
personnel to Estonia for training and instruction. In
discussions with Ukrainian diplomats, it is clear they
value Estonian assistance highly because of Estonia's
success in transforming its political and economic
institutions on the road to NATO and EU membership. The
government will continue actively to support the EU and
NATO membership aspirations of Georgia, Ukraine, and
Moldova within EU fora. The GOE believes that long-term
regional security and stability ultimately depend on these
countries moving closer to Brussels and farther away from
Moscow.
GOLDSTEIN