C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MINSK 000145
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/27/2018
TAGS: PHUM, PGOV, PINR, BO
SUBJECT: IRINA KOZULINA RESTS IN PEACE, LUKASHENKO WORRIES
REF: A. MINSK 050
B. MINSK 143
Classified By: Ambassador Karen Stewart for reason 1.4 (b/d).
Summary
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1. (C) Overflow crowds packed the February 26 and 27 funeral
services for Irina Kozulina held in downtown Minsk.
Opposition figures and Minsk residents both paid their
respects to her and took the opportunity to express their
support to her political prisoner husband Aleksandr, who had
been furloughed to take part in the services (ref B). Though
Lukashenko can not be pleased by such an outpouring of
support for an erstwhile rival, his public statements seem to
hint that he is at least considering Kozulin's release. End
summary.
Hundreds Pay Last Respects at Wake
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2. (C) A wake for Irina Kozulina that started at 8 p.m.
February 26 at Minsk's Sts. Simeon and Helen Catholic Church
drew an overflow crowd of over 1,000 mourners. Poloffs
witnessed many EU Heads of Mission, including those of
Germany, Slovakia, Latvia and Sweden and most major
opposition figures were present. In the main, though, the
bulk of the crowd appeared to be composed of average Minsk
residents. When Ambassador and A/DCM arrived at 9 p.m. there
were still long lines waiting to pay their respects. Police
presence was not visible, although independent media reported
police vehicles were stationed out of sight a couple blocks
away.
Regime Restricts Funeral Location and Attendees
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3. (C) The Kozulin family requested a burial plot in Minsk's
best-known cemetery, Eastern Cemetery, also known as Moscow
Cemetery. Authorities denied the request for as yet unclear
reasons and instead offered the family plots in two other
cemeteries. The family settled on Tarasovo Cemetery, outside
of Minsk city limits, about 30 minutes from the center of
town.
4. (C) Regime daily "Soviyetskaya Belorussiya" included a
front-page announcement of the Kozulina funeral and roughly
1,000 people attended the noon funeral mass. In at least two
cases, however, authorities denied requests to travel to
Minsk for the event under the pretext that funerals are
family affairs. EUR DAS David Kramer requested a visa to
attend, but received a visa valid only starting March 3. An
MFA Spokesman cynically or ignorantly told reporters Kramer
had been issued a visa but he did not know whether Kramer
would attend the funeral, adding "personally, I think
funerals are family affairs." Former political prisoner
Nikolay Avtukhovich (ref A) was denied permission to skip his
daily report to his local police station in order to travel
to Minsk for the funeral.
Kozulin Euologizes Wife at Graveside Service
--------------------------------------------
5. (SBU) Roughly 800 mourners gathered following the funeral
for Irina Kozulina's interment at Tarasovo Cemetery,
including leaders of all the main parties and movements in
Belarus' United Democratic Forces. When family members were
invited to say a few words during the service, Aleksandr
Kozulin was the only speaker. Kozulin's remarks were both
measured and respectful. He thanked his late wife for all
she had sacrificed for him, telling the assembled mourners
that she offered an example of how to live and how to die,
with love and in freedom.
Comment: Opposition Inspired, Lukashenko Worried
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6. (C) Although Kozulina's wake and funeral were entirely in
keeping with religious traditions, because of the nature of
the Kozulins politics was undoubtedly on the minds of many
attendees. Almost as if Kozulina's death spurred them to
push harder for democracy, contacts mentioned more mundane
topics such as upcoming lectures and Democracy Commission
grants. Former Prime Minister Chigir and Kozulin's
predecessor as rector of Belarus State University, Anatoliy
Pavlov, told Acting Pol/Econ Chief that even more
international pressure was needed on Aleksandr Lukashenko.
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7. (C) One of the keys to Lukashenko's political dominance
has been his success at crushing opponents who begin to gain
prominence. He cannot feel comfortable with one of his most
prominent critics receiving huge crowds of sympathizers. In
forcing Kozulin to choose between exile or staying in prison
while his beloved wife died, Lukashenko, usually a master
politician, has turned a third place candidate with limited
public support into the potential moral standard of Belarus.
8. (C) Lukashenko has wisely kept quiet on the Kozulins
since Irina's death. Kozulin may expect irrational action
from the dictator (ref B), but he appears hard at thought.
His comments on February 26 that "we conducted and conduct a
careful, balanced foreign policy, and if we somewhere
compromise, as recently with the European Union, then I
wouldn't say, that we changed the direction of our foreign
policy ..." could signal he is considering the release of
Kozulin to attempt dialogue with the West.
STEWART