UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADANA 000018
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TU, IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY: DTP SCORES KEY ELECTION VICTORIES IN SOUTHEAST
TURKEY
REF: ADANA 0016
ADANA 00000018 001.2 OF 002
1. (SBU) SUMMARY. With over 99% of the votes tallied,
official election results confirm a better-than-expected showing
in the southeast for pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP),
which picked up eight mayoral victories as well as 50 district
mayor slots. As predicted, the Justice and Development Party
(AKP) lost five seats in Adana's consular district, two of them
to the DTP. Whether viewing this as DTP strength or AKP
weakness, there are multiple interpretations of this outcome for
Kurdish intellectuals and policymakers. Voters sent a message
that could be anti-AKP, pro-PKK, or simply pro-peace and
democracy. The important question now is how AKP will digest
these losses in shaping future policies vis-`-vis Kurdish
question. END SUMMARY.
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DTP RUNS UP THE SCORE
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2. (U) DTP scored important electoral victories in Igdir,
Siirt and Van, unseating AKP incumbents. They held Sirnak with
54% of the vote, Diyarbakir with over 65%, Hakkari with 79%, as
well as Tunceli, where a pro-AKP governor's questionably legal
largesse in distributing appliances and sofas to win votes
stirred major pre-election controversy and was widely derided by
the public as a cheap ploy. Former DTP party provincial
chairman in Diyarbakir, Nejdet Atalay, swept to an easy victory
in Batman. DTP further consolidated gains with triumphs in 50
boroughs throughout the southeast, up from 32 in the 2004 local
elections. The winners included Abdullah Demirbas, a mayor in
one of Diyarbakir city's districts who was removed from office
in 2007 for offering municipal services in multiple languages,
including Kurdish. (On the district level in Sanliurfa
province, Halfeti, hometown of imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah
Ocalan, transferred back to DTP control from CHP).
3. (SBU) As predicted in reftel, AKP's bungled candidate
selections (and unceremonious dumping of some popular
incumbents) forced losses of four seats in Adana's consular
district: in addition to Siirt and Van, AKP lost Osmaniye to
MHP and Sanliurfa to a Saadet Party (SP)-affiliated independent.
AKP rebuffed all three incumbents in those cities, and has now
paid the price for what locals consider Prime Minister Erdogan's
arrogant interference in local political dynamics outside of his
understanding. As expected, AKP remains virtually untouchable
in eastern Anatolia (cities such as Adiyaman and Malatya) and in
the most conservative pockets of the Kurdish region (Mus,
Bingol). While SP upped its vote to over 15% in many cities,
the increase was not enough to stop the AKP.
4. (SBU) There is a possible fifth loss, Adana, as MHP incumbent
Aytac (who was also forced out of the AKP) is in a dead heat
with the AKP's Mehmet Ali Bilici. Durak led throughout the
vote-counting but Bilici was closing the gap as the final ballot
boxes were about to be counted and inconsistencies emerged.
Durak is already accusing the AKP of tampering with the results
and the dispute will likely require recounts, court cases and
several days or weeks to resolve.
5. (SBU) COMMENT. Speculation about what exactly the DTP's
strong showing means has already started. AKP's Kurdish policy
has included initiatives such as the establishment of a Kurdish
state TV channel TRT-6, support for the Ergenekon investigation
and approval of Kurdish language departments in universities
that should have translated into more votes in the southeast.
But Erdogan's rhetoric, including an emotional "love it or leave
it" statement, and AKP's approval of cross-border military
operations have sapped trust among Kurds, apparently leading
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many to conclude the AKP is really just another
pro-establishment party. The question now is what the AKP will
do with this electoral lesson - will it redouble efforts to
compete with DTP by reaching out more to the Kurds or behave
more like an establishment party and ignore their demands? END
COMMENT.
GREEN