1. SUMMARY: MY DEPARTURE FROM POST PROVIDES OPPORTUNITY TO CALL
ATTENTION TO THIS SMALL COUNTRY, WHICH HAS EXERCISED REMARKABLY
EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF ITS HUMAN AND MATERIAL RESOURCES IN
ADVANCEMENT OF ITS POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL GOALS. IT
FORMS AN ANCHOR OF RATIONAL AND PROGRESSIVE LEADERSHIP IN SOUTH-
EAST ASIA AND IS A SUPPORTER OF REGIONAL COOPERATION AT A REALISTIC
RATE. IT IS A FRIEND AND IMPORTANT SOUTHEAST ASIAN TRADING
PARTNER OF THE U.S., A MUTUALLY REWARDING RELATIONSHIP
UNLIKELY TO BE MARRED EITHER BY MALAYSIA'S OFFICIAL ADHERENCE
TO NON-ALIGNMENT OR ITS RELIGIOUIGTIES TO THE ARAB WORLD.
END SUMMARY.
2. THE GOM HAS REGISTERED STEADY PROGRESS ON MOST FRONTS IN THE
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FOUR YEARS I HAVE BEEN HEREGOM THE ALLIANCE GOVERNMENT UNDER PM RAZAK
HAS CONSOLIDATED ITS POLITICAL HOLD TO POINT WHERE IT WILL
PROBABLY STEAMROLLER THE REMAINING OPPOSITION IN THE GENERAL
ELECTION LIKELY TO BE CALLED WITHIN SIX MONTHS. IMPORTANT POINT
IS THAT THE GOVERNMENT COMMANDS SIGNIFICANT POPULAR MULTI-RANBAL
SUPPORT. I SEE NO PROSPECT OF SERIOUS THREAT TO THE GOVERNING
ALLIANCE IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PERSISTENT DISSATISFACTION
OF LOW AND MIDDLE INCOME CHINESE (AND INDIANS) WITH GOM POLICIES
OF FAVORING MALAYS IS NOT LIKELY TO ABATE BUT ALSO IS UNLIKELY
TO CAUSE SERIOUS TROUBLE IF GOVERNMENT FOLLOWS THROUGH (AS I
BELIEVE IT WILL) ON PROMISES TO DEAL WITH PROBLEMS OF ALL,
NOT ONLY MALAY, HAVE-NOTS.
3. THE TWO LOW-PAADE INSURGENCIES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE WHEN
I ARRIVED IN OCTOBER 1969. THEY PROVE NO THREAT TO THE GOVERN-
MENT AND APPEAR TO EXERT VERY LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE POPULATION.
THE GOM COULD PROBABLY WHITTLE DOWN TERRORIST FORCES BUT ONLY AT
GREAT EXPENSE OF MEN AND EQUIPMENT. GOM APPARENTLY FEELS THAT
CONTAINMENT AT ROUGHLY PRESENT LEVELS IF THE MOST PRACTICAL
APPROACH. THEY PROBABLY ALSO EXPECT THAT MALAYSIA'S GROWING
ECONOMIC PROSPERITY WILL ULTIMATELY THROTTLE ANY POPULAR
APPEA OF A "LIBERATION MOVEMENT." THEY MAY WELL BE RIGHT
IN THIS ASSESSMENT, PARTICULARLY IF LOWER CLASS CHINESE ARE
PERMITTED TO SHARE IN THE COUNTRY'S AFFLUENCE. A DEVELOPMENT
THAT MAY HAVE A BEARING ON THE MAOIST-ORIENTED INSURGENCIES IS
THE IMPENDING ESTABLISHMENT OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE PRC.
THERE SEEMS LITTLE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE PRC WILL DISAVOW ITS
IDEOLOGICAL SUPPORT OF THE LOCAL "LIBERATION MOVEMENTS." THE
QUESTION THE MALAYSIANS (AS WELL AS OTHER SOUTHEAST ASIANS)
WOULD LIKE TO HAVE CLARIFIED IS WHETHER THE PRC WILL SEEK TO
ENCOURAGE OR RESTRAIN THE CTO'S.
4. THE ECONOMY IS BOOMING AND LOOKS PROMISING FOR THE LONG TERM
UNLESS IT IS IMPEDED BY A SERIOUS WORLD RECESSION. A MID-TERM
REVIEW OF SECOND MALAYSIA PLAN REVEALS THAT ECONOMY HAS BEEN
GROWING IN REAL TERMS, 1971-73, AN AVERAGE OF 6.9 PERCENT. ALL
INDICATIONS FOR FUTURE ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. GOM TWENTY-
YEAR PROJECTION CALLS FOR ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF 7.1
PERCENT AND INDUSTRIAL EXPANSION OF 12.3 PERCENT. IF COUNTRY
COMES EVEN CLOSE TO THESE GOALS, I SEE NOTHING BUT ROSES
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AHEAD FOR THE MALAY-DOMINATED ALLIANCE GOVERNMENT.
5. U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS HERE ARE MARGINAL, EXCEPT FOR
OUR STAGE IN FREE TRANSIT OF THE MALACCA STRAIT. RECENT MOST
MODERATE STATEMENTS OF THE GOM ON THIS POTENTIALLY TESTY ISSUE
TEND TO CONFIRM THAT THEY CONSIDER THE PROBLEM NEGOTIABLE AND
DO NOT SEEK A CONFRONTATION WITH THE U.S. OVER IT. IF, AS
RECENTLY NOTED BY THEIR HOME AFFAIRS MINISTER, A PRINCIPAL
CONCERN IS POLLUTION, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVISE A FORMULA
THAT WILL PROVIDE THEM WITH MAXIMUM SAFEGUARDS, PREFERABLY
WITH THE SEMBLANCE OF NATIONAL CONTROL (IN VIEW OF THEIR CLAIM,
TOGETHER WITH INDONESIA, FOR 12-MILE TERRITORIAL WATERS), WHILE
ASSURING THE CONTINUANCE OF FREE INTERNATIONAL TRANSIT.
6. I SEE LITTLE POINT IN DWELLING ON THE GOM'S FOREIGN POLICIES
WHICH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MIDDLE EAST, HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
CONSONANT WITH OUR OWN. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE MUST EXPECT THAT
IN PURSUIT OF NON-ALIGNMENT THEY WILL PERHAPS INCREASINGLY TEND
TO ASSOCIATE THEMSELVES WITH THE THIRD WORLD. AT THE SAME TIME
THEY WILL SEEK TO MAINTAIN CORDIAL BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH US,
AS INDICATED BY THEIR MANAGEMENT RECENTLY OF THE MALACCA STRAIT
ISSUE AND THE ARAB/ISRAELI WAR. A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF FRICTION
WITH THE GOM IS ITS NEUTRALIZATION PROPOSAL. FOR THE TIME
BEING, THIS CONCEPT IS VERY MUCH ON THE BACK BURNER BECAUSE
OF THE RESERVATIONS OF THE ASEAN GROUP AS WELL AS THE
UNSETTLED SITUATION IN INDOCHINA. I SEE NO BASIC SOURCE OF
CONFLICT FOR US IN THIS PROPOSAL, WHICH IS VISIONARY AT THE
MOMENT BUT IMPECCABLE AS A LONG-TERM OBJECTIVE, STRESSING AS IT
DOES INDIVIDUAL AND COLLECTIVE STRENGTH IN THE REGION, RESISTANCE
TO BIG-POWER HEGEMONY, AND A COMMITMENT TO PEACE. INDEED, I
FIND THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE SO COMPATIBLE WITH OUR OWN GOALS THAT
I BELIEVE WE SHOULD SEEK A MORE POSITIVE IDENTIFICATION WITH
IT. SUCH AN INITIATIVE WOULD PROVIDE US GREATER OPPORTUNITY
THAN WE NOW HAVE TO GUIDE IT, FROM THE SIDELINES, AND WOULD
GAIN FOR US POSITIVE RAPPORT WITH THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN
COMMUNITY.
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12
ACTION EA-14
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-07 H-03 INR-10 L-03
NSAE-00 NSC-10 PA-04 RSC-01 PRS-01 SPC-03 SS-20
USIA-15 ACDA-19 IO-14 NEA-10 AID-20 EB-11 COME-00
TRSE-00 OMB-01 DRC-01 /168 W
--------------------- 119418
R 130830Z DEC 73
FM AMEMBASSY KUALA LUMPUR
TO SECSTATE 5872
INFO AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
AMEMBASSY BANGKOK
AMEMBASSY MANILA
CINCPAC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 2 OF 2 KUALA LUMPUR 5442
CINCPAC FOR POLAD
7. SUPPORT FOR ASEAN'S LONG-RANGE ASPIRATIONS FOR A SOUTHEAST
ASIA ERA
OF PEACE WOULD ENHANCE OUR OPPORTUNITIES AS A SUPPORTER
OF INTRA-REGIONAL COOPERATION IN OTHER FIELDS. THERE IS NO INCOM-
PATIBILITY IN THIS POSTURE WITH OUR CONTINUING SUPPORT FOR OUR
STANDING MILITARY COMMITMENTS IN THE REGION SO LONG AS THEY MAY
BE REQUIRED. MEANWHILE THERE IS DISCERNIBLE, ALBEIT SLOW,
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN ASEAN (E.G., CAMBODIAN REPRE-
SENTATION IN UN; MEETINGS WITH JAPANESE ON SYNTHETIC RUBBER),
WHICH DESERVES OUR CONTINUING AND EXPLICIT ENCOURAGEMENT NOT-
WITHSTANDING WHATEVER LIMITS TO REGIONAL COOPERATION MAY BE
IMPLICIT IN CONCURRENT SIGNS OF GROWING NATIONALISM IN THE AREA.
APROPOS OF RECENT DISCUSSIONS IN TOKYO AND EMBASSY MANILA'S
13736, A CONSTRUCTIVE POSTURE OF THIS TYPE WOULD ENABLE US
TO PLAY A MORE ACCEPTABLE ROLE (IF REPEATEDLY ASKED) IN ANY (AS
YET UNDISCONCERNIBLE) MOVES THESE COUNTRIES MIGHT WISH TO MAKE
TOWARD REGIONAL DEFENSE PLANNING. THE LATTER MIGHT BEGIN AT A
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RELATIVELY EARLY DATE WITH TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE YFC CONCESSIONAL
TERMS FOR PURCHASES OF MILITARY HARDWARE LEADING TO STANDARDIZA-
TION OF EQUIPMENT AND THE PREVENTION OF A MINI-ARMS RACE IN THE
REGION. EVEN MALAYSIA, PROBABLY THE MEMBER OF ASEAN CURRENTLY
LEAST INTERESTED IN REGIONAL DEFENSE PLANNING LEST IT DIVERT
FROM THE NEUTRALIZATION GOAL, MIGHT FIND THE FOREGOING
SCENARIO ACCEPTABLE.
8. THE MOST PATENT EARLY OPPORTUNITY FOR THE U.S. IN MALAYSIA
IS ECONOMIC. AMERICAN INVESTMENT NOW TOTALS ABOUT U.S. $400
MILLION, WITH EVERY PROSPECT FOR FURTHER SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES
DUE TO THE GOM'S HIGH EMPHASIS ON FIREIGN INVESTMENT UNDER THE
SECOND MALAYSIA PLAN AND THE 1970-90 PERSPECTIVE. IN A WORLD OF
SHRINKING RESOURCES, THIS SMALL BUT RICH COUNTRY HAS MANY
ATTRACTIONS FOR INVESTMENT. WE ARE RESPECTABLY REPRESENTED IN
THE EFFORT TO FIND OIL AND GAS, AN EFFORT NOW BEGINNING TO
PROSPER, BUT WE HAVE NOT YET ENTERED THE COMPETITION FOR THE
EXTENSIVE TIMBER RESOURCES THAT EAST MALAYSIA, PARTICULARLY,
HAS TO OFFER. IN ELECTRONICS AND OTHER SECONDARY INDUSTRIES,
THE U.S. HAS INCREASED ITS SHARE VERY SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST
THREE YEARS BUT MANY OTHER OPPORTUNITIES REMAIN. I SEE NO BETTER
INSURANCE FOR
THE MAINTENANCE OF GOOD RELATIONS BETWEEN OUR TWO
COUNTRIES THAN THROUGH SELECTIVE AMERICAN INVESTMENT, WHICH IS
UNIQUELY CAPABLE OF MAKING INPUTS OF ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY,
MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES, AND MARKETING TECHNIQUES WHICH THE
COUNTRY NEEDS AND SEEKS.
9. WHILE WE HAVE AN OVERALL NEGATIVE BALANCE OF TRADE WITH
MALAYSIA DUE TO OUR IMPORTS OF RUBBER AND OTHER PRIMARY
COMMODITIES, IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT U.S. EXPORTS INCREASED
42.9 PERCENT IN THE FIRST HALF 1973 OVER THE COMPARABLE PERIOD
A YEAR AGO: TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS STOOD AT U.S. $174 MILLION IN
1972 AND WE EXPECT SIGNIFICANT, IF NOT DRAMATIC, IMPROVEMENT
IN THIS AND COMING YEARS.
10. THESE ARE THE HIGHLIGHTS OF OUR RELATIONS WITH MALAYSIA.
WE HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW OFFICIAL PROFILE HERE AND I SEE NO
REASON TO CHANGE IT, ALTHOUGH THE UNOFFICIAL AMERICAN COMMUNITY
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IS BOUND TO EXPAND IN PROPORTION TO OUR GROWING INVESTMENT AND
TRADING INTERESTS. THIS SHOULD POSE NO PROBLEMS SO LONG AS OUR
BUSINESS PEOPLE HONOR THE PARTNERSHIP PRINCIPLE AND DO THEIR
BIT TOWARDS
CONTRIBUTING TO NATIONAL GOALS. OFFICIALLY, WE COULD,
AS DISCUSSED IN THE COM MEETING IN TOKYO, IMPROVE OUR
RELATIONS WITH SMALLER COUNTRIES BY MAINTAINING A MORE CONSTANT
AND CANDID DIALOGUE WITH THEM ON BOTH OUR CURRENT AND
PROSPECTIVE ACTIONS IN THE ASIAN REGION.
LYDMAN
NOTE BY OC/T: KLUMPUR 5442/2 - NOT PROC. GARBLED. LM.
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