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ACTION NEA-10
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-04 H-02 INR-07 L-03
NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 USIA-06 OMB-01
EB-07 /065 W
--------------------- 113163
R 170620Z FEB 76
FM USINT BAGHDAD
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 2847
INFO AMEMBASSY AMMAN
AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
AMEMBASSY CAIRO
AMEMBASSY DAMASCUS
AMEMBASSY JIDDA
AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
AMEMBASSY TEHRAN
AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV
C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 0220
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PINT, IZ
SUBJ: REGIME MOVES TO STRENGTHEN ITS CONTROL
1. BAATH PARTY IN IRAQ IS CURRENTLY MAKING MAJOR EFFORTS TO CONSOLI-
DATE ITS POWER BASE AND EXTEND ITS CONTROL OVER ALL IRAQI GOVERN-
MENTAL AND EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS. FEB. 8 WAS AN IRAQI HOLIDAY
MARKING THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE FIRST SUCCESSFUL BAATHI COUP IN
1963. FESTIVITIES INCLUDED A FOUR HOUR PARADE THROUGH DOWNTOWN
BAGHDAD OF LIGHTLY ARMED UNITS OF THE BAATHI PEOPLES ARMY.
PAPERS REPORTED THAT 30,000 SOLDIERS OF PEOPLES ARMY PARTICIPATED
AND DIPLOMATIC OBSERVERS COUNTED AT LEAST 28,000. PRESS ALSO
REPORTED THAT 100,000 MEN MARCHED IN VARIOUS PARTS OF IRAQ AND
QUOTED RCC MEMBER, TAHA JAZRAWI, THE COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF OF THE
PEOPLES ARMY, AS SAYING THAT THEY ARMY WOULD MULTIPLY IN THE NEXT
TWO YEARS AND THE STANDARDS OF TRAINING WOULD BE FURTHER DEVELOPED.
2. APPARENT PURPOSE OF PEOPLES ARMY IS TO IMPRESS IRAQI PUBLIC
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AND ARMED FORCES WITH EXTENT OF BAATHI CONTROL OF IRAQ AND TO
MUSTER SUPPORT FOR REGIME THROUGH POPULAR PARTICIPATION IN PARA-
MILITARY TYPE ORGANIZATIONS. LACK OF TRAINING OR HEAVY EQUIPMENT
WOULD MAKE PEOPLES ARMY OF DUBIOUS VALUE IN EVENT OF WAR, BUT
ITS SHEER SIZE MAKES IT AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN IRAQI INTERNAL
POLITICS. DISPLAY OF BAATHI MUSCLE MAY HAVE BEEN TRIGGERED BY
EVENTS OF LATE JANUARY AT CAMP RASHID (WHATEVER THEY WERE) AND
MAY REFLECT DESIRE OF REGIME TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE TOREGULAR
ARMED FORCES AS POWER CENTER IN IRAQ. PARADE MAY ALSO BE
INTENDED AS SIGNAL TO IRAQ'S PROFESSIONAL MILITARY OFFICERS THAT
THEY HAD BETTER ACCEPT SADDAM HUSSEIN AS HEIR APPARENT TO BKR.
3. DURING PAST WEEK, BAATH PARTY NEWSPAPER, AT-THAWRA, HAD
CARRIED SERIES OF ARTICLES ATTACKING UNNAMED BUREAUCRATS FOR
CORRUPTION AND FOR LACK OF SUPPORT FOR REVOLUTION. IT ALSO
ATTACKED PSEUDO-BAATHIS IN GOVERNMENT FOR NOT SUPPORTING TRUE
BAATHI OBJECTIVES. AT APPEARS THAT GROUND IS BEING PREPARED
FOR SWEEPING PERSONNEL CHANGES IN GOI, NO DOUBT FOR PURPOSE OF
EXTENDING BAATH PARTY CONTROL IN KEY GOVERNMENTAL POSITIONS
AND IDENTIFYING SCAPEGOATS FOR CURRENT SUPPLY SHORTAGES.
4. WE ALSO HAVE HAD REPORTS OF NUMEROUS CHANGES IN TEACHING
AND ADMINISTRATIVE PERSONNEL IN SCHOOLS, UNIVERSITIES, AND MINIS-
TRY OF EDUCATION. PARTY MEMBERS ARE BEING MOVED INTO KEY
JOBS AND SOME STUDENTS HAVE BEEN TOLD THAT THEY WILL BE GIVEN
FAILING GRADES IF THEY DO NOT JOIN PARTY. INDOCTRINATION
LECTURES ARE BEING INCREASINGLY INCORPORATED INTO SCHOOL
CURRICULA AND EVEN YOUND CHILDREN ARE NOW SUBJECTED TO DAILY
READINGS OF AT-THAWRA EDITORIALS. BAATH PARTY OBVOUSLY
CONSIDERS SCHOOLS AND UNIVERSITIES AS IMPORTANT BREEDING GROUND
FOR GURURE GENERATIONS OF FAITHFUL BAATHIS AND IS DEVOTING
CONSIDERABLE EFFORTS TO MOLD EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM TO PRODUCE
PROPERLY INDOCTRINATED PARTY MEMBERS.
4. COMMENT: DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW EFFECTIVE THESE MEASURES
ARE IN WINNING HEARTS AND MINDS OF IRAQIS. MORE SOPHISTICATED
ELDER GENERATION IS GENERALLY APPALLED BY HEAVY-HANDED INDOCTRINA-
TION ATTEMPTS AND POLICE STATE METHODS. ARABS, AND PARTICULARLY
IRAQIS, ARE NOTORIOUSLY INDIVIDUALISTIC AND REGIME'S ATTEMPTS TO
IMPOSE AUTHORITARIAN POLITICAL STRUCTURE ARE WIDELY RESENTED.
ON OTHER HAND, ARAB POLITICS HAS TRADITIONALLY INVOLVED STRONG
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ELEMENT OF OPPORTUNISM AND MESSAGE IS CERTAINLY GETTING THROUGH
TO YOUNGER AGE GROUPS THAT THE WAY TO GET ALONG IS TO GO ALONG.
REGIME IS ALSO HELPED BY THE FORTUITOUS INFLOW OF OIL REVENUES
AND THE CURRENT EXPANSION OF ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR MOST CITIZENS.
5. MOST IMMEDIATE ACHILLES HEEL FOR REGIME IS INCREASING
SHORTAGES OF FOOD ITEMS AND CONSUMER GOODS IN IRAQI SHOPS.
REGIME HAS TAKEN CONSCIOUS DECISION TORESTRAIN CONSUMPTION
AND USE BULK OF OIL REVENUES TO INVESTMENT, BUT GOVERNMENTAL
INEFFICIENCY AND TRANSPORTATION BOTTLENECKS HAVE BROUGHT ABOUT
SUPPLY SHORTAGES THAT PROBABLY GO CONSIDERABLY BEYOND REGIME'S
INTENTION. IT IS NOT SAFE FOR IRAQIS TO CRITICIZE THEIR
GOVERNMENT, BUT WE HAVE HEARD GRUMBLING OVER
SHORTAGES OF EGGS, MILK, MEAT, CLOTHING, SPARE PARTS, AND EVEN
BREAD. RESENTMENT IS COMPOUNDED BY FACT THAT BAATHI OFFICIALS
ALWAYS SEEM TO BE MUCH BETTER SUPPLIED THAN REST OF
POPULATION.
WILEY
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