CONFIDENTIAL POSS DUPE PAGE 01 LA PAZ 01350 01 OF 03 172007Z 42 ACTION OES-05 INFO OCT-01 ARA-06 ISO-00 AID-05 CIAE-00 COME-00 EB-07 FRB-03 INR-07 NSAE-00 USIA-06 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 SP-02 CIEP-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGR-05 PM-04 NSC-05 SS-15 HEW-02 DODE-00 L-03 H-02 IO-11 CU-02 FDRE-00 DIWY-01 /104 W --------------------- 120951 R 171930Z FEB 76 FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9697 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 1 OF 3 LA PAZ 1350 JOINT STATE/AID MESSAGE E.O. 11652: GDS TAGS: SPOP, BL SUBJ: IMPLICATIONS OF WORLDWIDE POPULATION GROWTH FOR UNITED STATES SECURITY AND OVERSEAS INVESTMENT REF: 75 STATE 301427 1. THE FOLLOWING RESPONSE IS KEYED TO PARAGRAPH 4 A THROUGH G OF REFTEL: A. POLICY, ATTITUDES AND PROGRAMS: 1. THE GOB HAS NOT ENUNCIATED AN OFFICIAL POPULATION OR FAMILY PLANNING POLICY. IN BOLIVIA OFFICIAL PRONOUNCEMENTS ON POPULATION POLICY OR BIRTH CONTROL TEND TO BE NEGATIVE. THERE IS A MATERNAL CHILD HEALTH PROGRAM WHICH PROVIDES SOME FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES, ALBEIT ON A LOW-KEYED AND LOW VOLUME BASIS. THE GOB DOES HAVE A "DE FACTO" POPULATION POLICY AND THE ACTIVITIES ENSUING FROM THIS POLICY ARE ENDORSED IN BOTH OFFICIAL AND NON-OFFICIAL QUARTERS. STATED IN ANOTHER WAY, THE GOB'S POLICY ON POPULATION MATTERS MIGHT BE DESCRIBED SIMPLY "ASSSSAYING ONE THING AND DOING OR CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 LA PAZ 01350 01 OF 03 172007Z TACITLY PERMITTING ANOTHER." 2. IN PUBLIC, THE MINISTERS OF HEALTH AND PLANNING AND HIGH- RANKING MEMBERS OF THE ARMED FORCES HAVE VOICED STRONG DISAPPROVAL OF BIRTH CONTROL AND FOR THAT MATTER OF ANY OTHER PROGRAM DES- IGNED TO ALTER DEMOGRAPHIC PARAMETERS. ON THE FACE OF IT, THEIR REMARKS WOULD EXCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF OFFICIAL PROGRAMS TO PRO- VIDE INFORMATION ON BIRTH CONTROL, MUCH LESS THOSE WHICH WOULD INSERT IUDS OR DISTRIBUTE PILLS. YET, THERE ARE FIVE MINISTRY OF HEALTH MATERNAL CHILD HEALTH CARE CLINICS WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO PROVIDE CONTRACEPTIVES TO THE PUBLIC; AND ALSO EIGHT NON-OFFICIAL CLINICS WHICH HAVE BEEN PERMITTED BY THE GOB (BASED ON A WRITTEN AGREEMENT WITH THE BOLIVIAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE PROTECTION OF THE FAMILY (PROFAM)) TO PROVIDE A FULL RANGE OF FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES. 3. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD, OPEN SUPPORT FOR FAMILY PLANNING PLUS A PERCEIVED NEED BY THE GOB TO MAINTAIN TRANQUIL RELATIONS WITH THE CHURCH ARE PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASONS FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S AMBIVALENT POSITION ON THE POPULATION QUESTION. THE CHURCH CONT- INUES TO CONDEMN THE USE OF ARTIFICAL BIRTH CONTROL METHODS AND ONLY RECENTLY ARCHBISHOP MANRIQUE ISSUED A PASTORAL LETTER WHICH CITED THE GOB FOR AN "ANTINATALIST POLICY BEING CONDUCTED BY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL AGENTS WITH THE OBJECT OF LIMITING THE LGROWTH OF THE POPULATION IN BOLIVIA BY MEANS CONTRARY TO CHRISTIAN ETHICS..." THE LETTER WARNED AGAINST..."THE GRAVE DANGER OF LIMITING THE GROWTH OF THE POPULATION IN A COUNTRY AS UNDERPOPULATED AS OURS..." NATIONAL LEADERS, INCLUDING THE PRESIDENT, UNWILLING TO CHALLENGE THE CHURCH ON THIS ISSUE TEND TO ECHO THE CHURCH'S STAND. 4. MOREOVER, THE NOTION THAT BOLIVIA IS UNDERPOPULATED HAS BEEN PART OF THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM IN CERTAIN INTELLECTUAL CIRCLES FOR MAY YEARS. THE COUNTRY IS SPARSELY-POPULATED WITH ONLY FIVE INHABITANTS PER SQUARE KILOMETER, AND THE AREAS IN THE LESSER- DEVELOPED EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF THE BENI AND PANDO ARE PRACTICALLY UNPOPULATED. WITHIN THE PAST TWO MONTHS TWO EDITORIALS HAVE WARNED AGAINST THE FACILE CONCLUSION THAT A HIGHER NET POPULATION GROWTH RATE WOULD TEND TO RESOLVE THIS PROBLEM. THE POINT, HOWEVER, IS THAT THE NOTION OF UNDER- POPULATION TENDS TO CONTROVERT THE PROPOSITION THAT THERE ARE POPULATION PROBLEMS WHICH IMPEDE SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN BOLIVIA. 4. CERTAINLY, ONE OF THE PROBLEMS IS THAT THE PRECISE MAGNITUDES CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 LA PAZ 01350 01 OF 03 172007Z OF THE POPULATION IN BOLIVIA ARE NOT KNOWN. THE LAST CENSUS IN 1950 WAS SERIOUSLY DEFICIENT. ONE OF THE SEVERAL SUBSEQUENT PROJECTIONS YIELDED THE CRUDE BIRTH RATE OF 2.4 PERCENT WHICH IS CURRENTLY BEING USED BY THE MINISTRY OF PLANNING. ALTHOUGH HIGH, A 2.4 PERCENT RATE IS LESS THAN MOST OTHER COUNTRIES IN LATIN AMERICA. THE DIFFICULTY IS THAT THIS RATE IS PROBABLY INACCURATE. A MINI-CENSUS OF 50,000 BOLIVIANS RECENTLY COMPLETED BY THE LATIN AMERICAN CENTER OF DEMOGRAPHY (CELADE) YIELDED A CRUDE BIRTH RATE, EXCLUDING MIGRATION EFFECTS, OF 3.0 PERCENT, A FIGURE APPRECIABLY HIGHER THAN THE 2.4 PERCENT USED FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING. 6. FURTHER, IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE ABORTION RATE IS ABOUT ONE FOR EVERY FOUR TO FIVE BIRTHS, AND MOST ALL OF THESE ARE INDUCED THROUGH CONCOCTIONS OF PARSLEY AND GROUND PAPAYA SEED, CRUDE INSTRUMENTS AND BINDING THE ABDOMEN WITH ROPE. THE ABORTION RATE IS NOT THE HIGHEST IN THE CONTINENT, BUT THE DEATHS AND ILLNESS RESULTING FROM THESE CRUDE OPERATIONS HAVE REACHED UNDESIRABLE PROPORTIONS. ON THE OTHER HAND, BOLIVIA'S MATERNAL AND INFANT MORTALITY RATES ARE THE HIGHEST IN LATIN AMERICA. 7. THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITY OF THE GOB TO COPE WITH THE POPULATION AND HEALTH-RELATED PROBLEMS IS LACKING. MOST OF THE CONTRACEPTIVE SERVICES PROVIDED BY THE GOB ARE CHANNELED THROUGH THE FIVE CLINICS OPERATED BY THE MINISTRY OF HEALTH'S DEPARTMENT OF MATERNAL CHILD CARE. ADDITIONALY, PRIVATE ORGANIZATIONS SUCH AS PROFAM AND THE METHODIST CHURCH ARE PROVIDING FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES. AT PRESENT PROFAM WHICH HAS BEGUN TO WORK WITH LABOR UNIONS AND CAMPESINO ORGANIZATIONS HAS FIVE NEW CLINICS AND THE METHODISTS THREE. IN TOTAL, 1814 CONTRACEPTORS RECEIVED SERVICES FROM THE MCH AND THE PRIVATE FACILITIES BY 30 JUNE 1975, AND 7144 BY 30 DECEMBER 1975. ALTHOUGH THE NUMBERS OF CONTRACEPTORS ARE SMALL, THEY MERIT A FEW BRIEF COMMENTS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF 400 PERCENT IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS OVER THE FIRST SIX MONTHS OF THE YEAR, AND GIVEN THE NEWNESS OF THE PROGRAM THIS IS A TREND IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. SECOND, THE GOB'S PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY AVERAGED ABOUT 480 CONTRACEPTORS PER CLINIC; PROFAM'S OVER 600 PER CLINIC AND THE METHODIST CHURCH'S ABOUT 400 PER CLINIC PER YEAR. ALL THESE FACILITIES ARE UNDERUTILIZED. THERE ARE VIRTUALLY DOZENS OF OTHER POTENTIAL OUTLESTS WHICH THE GOB COULD USE FOR SUCH SERVICES RANGING FROM OTHER PUBLIC HEALTH FACILITIES TO UNIVERSITY AND MILITARY HOSPITALS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY THERE SEEMS TO BE A LACK OF COORDINATION AS WELL AS CONCENSUS CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 LA PAZ 01350 01 OF 03 172007Z WITHIN AND AMONG THE MINISTRIES ON POPULATION PROGRAMS. CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL POSS DUPE PAGE 01 LA PAZ 01350 02 OF 03 172019Z 65 ACTION OES-05 INFO OCT-01 ARA-06 ISO-00 AID-05 CIAE-00 COME-00 EB-07 FRB-03 INR-07 NSAE-00 USIA-06 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 SP-02 CIEP-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGR-05 PM-04 NSC-05 SS-15 HEW-02 DODE-00 L-03 H-02 IO-11 CU-02 FDRE-00 DIWY-01 /104 W --------------------- 121089 R 191930Z FEB 76 FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9698 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 2 OF 3 LA PAZ 1350 8. IN ADDITION TO SOME OF THE INHIBITIVE ATTITUDES AND OTHER FACTORS DESCRIBED IN THE PRECEDING PARAGRPAHS, THERE ARE THREE NEW POTENTIALLY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS WHICH THE MISSION WILL BE WATCHING CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. FIRST, WITHIN THE CHURCH, WE UNDERSTAND FROM HIGH GOB SOURCES THAT THE CARDINAL FAVORS SOME SORT TD FAMILY PLANNING ACTIVITY SINCE RECOURSE TO ABORTION (OFTEN ENTAILING IN BOLIVIA EXCEEDINGLY PRIMITIVE AND DESTRUCTIVE METHODS) HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY BEEN ATTENUATED BY THE CHURCH'S EFFORTS. HOWEVER, WE UNDERSTAND FROM THESE SAME SOURCES THAT THE CARDINAL HAS THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE (OR UNWILLING) TO COERCE THE RATHER VOCIFEROUS, RECALCITRANT HALF OF THE BISHOP'S COUNCIL INTO ADOPTING APOSITION FAVORABLE TO FAMILY PLANNING. (THE ACTIVISTS IN THE GROUP OFTEN USE THE FAMILY PLANNING THEME PUBLICLY TO TRY TO EMBARRASS THE GOB IN CONNECTION WITH OTHER EVENTS OF POLITICAL INTEREST TO THE CHURCH.) SECONDLY, THE GOB SINGED AN AGREEMENT ON FEBRUARY 12 FOR AT $1.50 MILLION UNFPA PROJECT WHICH INCLUDED AN ESTIMATE D$180,000 FOR CONTRACEPTIVES. THE EVENT CONSTITUTES SOME FURTHER EVIDENCE OF THE GOB'S INTEREST IN POPULATION PROGRAMS--AT LEAST WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE OVERALL UN PROGRAM. HOWEVER, MEDIA COVERAGE FOLLOWING THE SIGNING DOWN- PLAYED THE FAMILY PLANNING COMPONENT. IF AND WHEN THE CHURCH BECOMES AWARE OF THE FAMILY PLANNING ELEMENT THERE WILL ALMOST CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 LA PAZ 01350 02 OF 03 172019Z CERTAINLY BE SOME REACTION. THE NATURE OF THAT REACTION MAY INDICATE THE DIRECTION OF CHURCH/STATE RELATIONS OF THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. FINALLY, EMBASSY OBSERVERS HAVE DETECTED A PERIOD OF RELATIVE TRANQUILITY IN CHURCH/STATE RELATIONS. IN FACT, AT THE LAST BISHOP'S CONFERENCE, THE CHURCH STRONGLY ENDORSED THE GOB'S FOREIGN POLICY. HYPOTHETICALLY, AT LEAST, THE CHURCH MAY EXPECT A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF RECIPROCITY FROM THE GOB ON MATTERS OF SPECIAL CONCERN SUCH AS ON BIRTH CONTROL AND FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS. IF THIS HYPOTHESIS PROVES CORRECT, IT WOULD BE ANTI- CIPATED THAT THE GOB'S LOW SILHOUETTE ON POPULATION AND FAMILY PLANNING PROGRAMS MAY BECOME EVEN LESS PERCEPTIBLE. IN ANY EVENT, IN THE SHORT TERM, AT LEAST, THE GOB PROBABLY NEEDS THE SUPPORT OF THE CHURCH ESPECIALLY DURING THE TRANSACTING FOR A CORRIDOR TO THE PACIFIC, AND CLEARLY WOULD NOT WELCOME A PUBLIC CAMPAIGN WHICH THE CHURCH IS FULLY CAPABLY OF LAUNCHING, ON THE FAMILY PLANNING ISSUE. B. COST EFFECTIVENESS: 1. THE OFFICIAL PROGRAM IS TOO NEW TO HAVE CAUSED ANY PERCEPTIBLE DECLINE IN FERTILITY. USAID SUPPORT WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN DEVELOPING THE GOB'S PROGRAM AND THE LARGE $1.5 MILLION UNFPA PROJECT SIGNED FEBRUARY 12, 1976. C. IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON DEVELOPMENT: 1. THE INTERNAL DEMAND FOR MOST FOOD PRODUCTS IS GROWING AT A RATE OF ABOUT FOUR PERCENT PER YEAR. FOOD PRODUCTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AT ABOUT TWO PERCENT ANNUALLY. OVER THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM (SAY 10-15 YEARS) A REDUCED FERTILITY RATE WOULD HAVE MARGINAL IMPACT ON GROWTH IN FOOD DEMAND SINCE A DECLINE IN THE POPULATION GORWTH RATE WOULD BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODEST IN- CREASES IN PER CAPITA INCOME. GIVEN CURRENT CONSUMPTION LEVELS AND ESTIMATES OF INCOME ELASTICITIES WE DO NOT SEE SIGINFICANT CHANGE IN FOOD DEMAND GROWTH RATE. WITH PRESENT UNDERUTILIZED LAND RESOURCES AND POTENTIAL EXPANSION IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, USG AND OTHER FOREIGN DONOR ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS NEEDS HAVE SIG- NIFICANT IMPACT ON INCREASING PER CAPITA FOOD AVAILABILITIES OF SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDES TO AVOID MAJOR OR PERSISTED FOOD CRISES. IN SO DOING, AND WITH APPROPRAITE AND WELL-REASONED PUBLIC POLICIES, BOLIVIA SHOULD BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE MACRO GROWTH RATES WHICH WOULD GENERATE INCREASED SAVINGS/INVESTMENT AND LEAD TO SUSTAINED BUT MODEST LONG RUN IMPROVEMENTS IN THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL WELFARE OF THE POPULATION. 2. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: HISTORICALLY, AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS HAVE CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 LA PAZ 01350 02 OF 03 172019Z HAD A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON BOLIVIA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT. IN THE PERIOD FROM 1970 TO 1972, AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS AVERAGED $43 MILLION ANNUALLY, OR 25 PERCENT OF THE TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF ALL GOODS IMPORTED. DURING THE SAME PERIOD, THE OVERALL AGRICULTURAL TRADE BALANCE WAS HEAVILY NEGATIVE, WITH IMPORTS EXCEEDING EXPORT EARNINGS BY AN AVERAGE OF OVER $25,000,000 PER YEAR. OVER THE PAST 20 YEARS, AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL IMPORTS HAVE DECLINED; HOWEVER, IN ABSOLUTE TERMS AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS HAVE INCREASED STEADILY FROM $30,869,000 IN 1951 TO $51,737,000 IN 1972. DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1962 TO 1972, THE VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT GREW AT A RATE OF 1.9 PERCENT, 1.1 PERCENT LESS THAN THE RATE OF GROWTH OF THE POPULATION. THUS, TO MEET FOOD NEEDS THE AMOUNT OF FOOD IMPORTED MUST INCREASE AT A RATE OF 1.1 PERCENT IF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSTANT. 3. UNEMPLOYMENT: OPEN UNEMPLOYMENT (AS OPPOSED TO UNDER-EMPLOY- MENT) REACHED 16 PERCENT OF THE LABOR FORCE BY 1970 AND, GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OF RECENT GROWTH, HAS NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THAT TIME. ACCORDING TO RELIABLE STATISTICS, EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IS GROWING AT A RATE OF 2.3 PERCENT PER YEAR. SHOULD BOTH THE POP- ULATION GROWTH RATE AND THE RATE OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CONTINUE TO GROW AT THE SAME RATE, SURPLUS LABOR WILL INCREASE AT A RATE OF .77 PERCENT PER YEAR EXACERBATING THE ALREADY SERIOUS UNEMPLOY- MENT PROBLEM. 4. GNP: ASSUMING A NET POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF 3 PERCENT AND AN ANNUAL INCREASE IN THE GORSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OF NOT MORE THAN 4.8 PERCENT, THE REAL GORWITH OF THE COUNTRY'S PER CAPITA GNP HOVERS AROUND 1.8 PERCENT. 5. SAVINGS: DURING THE PERIOD FROM 1971 TO 1974, BOLIVIA'S GDP GREW AT A RATE WHICH FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 5 PERCENT AND 6 PERCENT. IN ORDER TO INCREASE PER CAPITA INCOME BY ONE-THIRD BY 1980 (TO US $400 IN 1974 PRICES), INVESTMENT WILL HAVE TO AVERAGE 30 PER- CENT OF THE GDP (IT AVERAGED 16 PERCENT DURING THE 1971 TO 1974 PERIOD). TO REACH THE 30 PERCENT MARK, A SUSTAINED REAL GROWTH RATE IN THE GDP OF 9 PERCENT TO 10 PERCENT WILL BE REQUIRED. A REDUCTION IN THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE OF 1.36 PERCENT WOULD SERVE TO INCREASE THE REAL GDP FROM THE CURRENT 5 PERCENT-6 PER- CENT RANGE TO THE 6.36 PERCENT-7.36 PERCENT RANGE, THUS MOVING THE GDP GROWTH RATE CLOSER TO BUT STILL SOME DISTANCE FROM THE REQUIRED LEVEL NEEDED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE PER CAPITA INCOME. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 LA PAZ 01350 02 OF 03 172019Z CONFIDENTIAL NNN CONFIDENTIAL POSS DUPE PAGE 01 LA PAZ 01350 03 OF 03 172033Z 65 ACTION OES-05 INFO OCT-01 ARA-06 ISO-00 AID-05 CIAE-00 COME-00 EB-07 FRB-03 INR-07 NSAE-00 USIA-06 TRSE-00 XMB-02 OPIC-03 SP-02 CIEP-01 LAB-04 SIL-01 OMB-01 AGR-05 PM-04 NSC-05 SS-15 HEW-02 DODE-00 L-03 H-02 IO-11 CU-02 FDRE-00 DIWY-01 /104 W --------------------- 121250 R 171930Z FEB 76 FM AMEMBASSY LA PAZ TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9699 C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 3 OF 3 LA PAZ 1350 D. IMPACT OF POPULATION GROWTH ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS: 1. THE IMPACT OF THE POPULATION GROWTH ON RURAL AND URBAN EMPLOY- MENT OR UNDEREMPLOYMENT, OR ON INTERNAL MIGRATION WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MEANINGFULLY GIVEN THE QUALITY OF AVAILABLE DATA. 2. COMPETENT BOLIVIAN AUTHORITIES BELIEVE THAT REDUCING THE NUMBER OF ABORTIONS SHOULD REDUCE THE SIGNIFICANT MEDICAL COSTS INVOLVED IN TREATING INCOMPLETE ABORTIONS IN THE PUBLICLY-FINANCED HOSPITAL FACILITIES. UNFORTUNATELY, THE ACCOUNTING SYSTEMS IN THE MINISTRY ARE TOO INJFEQUATE TO QUANTIFY THESE AMOUNTS EASILY. 3. ATTENUATING THE CHILD-BEARING BURDEN OF MOTHERS SHOULD CONCEIVABLY PERMIT GREATER PARTICIPATION OF THE WOMEN IN INCOME- GENERATING ACTIVITIES. 4. FINALLY, IN TERMS OF THE EDUCATIONAL ASPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE AVERAGE CHILD IN BOLIVIA COMPLETES ONLY A TRIFLE OVER THREE YEARS OF EDUCATION. AVERAGE COSTS PER YEAR ARE $30 FOR ELEMENTARY GRADES, HENCE, THE GOB SPENDS APPROXIMATELY $100 IN EDUCATIONAL COST FOR EACH CHILD BORN. THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE COSTS OF THE $100 ARE PRACTICALLY NIL. PARENTS HAVE TO SPEND APPROXIMATELY $16 OVER THE THREE-YEAR PERIOD--A GREAT BURDEN CONSIDERING BOLIVIAN PER CAPITA GNP IS ONLY ABOUT $255. ON THE BASIS OF INCREMENTS FROM FOREIGN DONORS THE COST PER PUPIL WILL RISE AN ESTIMATE 30 CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 LA PAZ 01350 03 OF 03 172033Z PERCENT IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. E. THE ENVIRONMENT: 1. THE RELATIVELY LOW POPULATION DENSITY FOR BOLIVIA AS A WHOLE (LESS THAN FIVE PER SQUARE KILOMETER) SUGGEST ADEQUATE LAND RESOURCES TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER POPULATION WITHOUT WIDESPREAD ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER, HEAVY POPULATION CON- CENTRATION IN CERTAIN AREAS HAVE IMPORTANT NEGATIVE IMPACTS. HIGH ANIMAL CONCENTRATIONS HAVE ALREADY RESULTED IN OVERGRAZING AND DENUDATION OF RANGE RESOURCES, THIS IN TURN HAS LEAD TO ACCELERATED EROSION IN SOME AREAS, AND HAS AFFECTED THE GEOMORPHIC, HYDRO- LOGICA AND EDAPHIC CONDITIONS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE EFFECTS ARE IRREVERSIBLE AND THEIR CONTINUATION WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF THE NATURAL RESOURCE BASE OF THE COUNTRY. 2. BOLIVIA'S NATIONAL DISASTERS ARE RELATED ESSENTIALLY TO HEAVY RAINS AND/OR FLOODING--AND OBVIOUSLY, THE GREATER THE POPULATION- AT-RISK, THE GREATER THE DIRECT RELIEF COST. IN TERMS OF POLL- UTION, THE SAME OBSERVATIONS OBTAINS--FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AT LEAST THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN POPULATION AND NATURAL DISASTERS, AND POLLUTION EFFECTS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS THAN BY AGGREGATE POPULATION NUMBERS. PROGRAMS TO OPERATE ON POPULATION PARAMETERS WILL PROBABLY HAVE LESS EFFECT ON THESE CONCENTRATIONS THAN OTHER FACTORS INCLUDING DECISIONS ON THE LOCATION AND DISTRIBUTION OF ECONOMIC INVESTMENTS, ETC. F. THE POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF POPULATION GROWTH: BOLIVIA'S POPULATION GROWTH IS NOT LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON ITS RELATIONS WITH ITS NEIGHBORS, NOR DO WE SEE ANY SPECIAL OR UNIQUE POLITICAL FALL- OUT FROM POPULATION GROWTH IN BOLIVIA COMPARED TO ANY OTHER COUNTRY. BOLIVIA COULD DEAL WITH POPULATION GROWTH IN SOME ASPECTS, E.G., TERRITORIAL ABSORPTIVE COPACITY, BUT IS LESS CAPABLE IN OTHERS, E.G., THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE TAX REVENUE TO PROVIDE IMPORVED PUBLIC SERVICES FOR AN EXPANDING POPULATION. ON BALANCE, WE WOULD CONCLUDE THAT THE POLITICAL CONSEQUNECES OF POPULATION GOWTH MAY BE LESS ACUTE IN BOLIVIA THAN IN MOST OTHER COUNTRIES OF THE HEMISPHERE. G. MISSION STRATEGY VIS-A-VIS OTHER DONORS: USAID HAS PROMOTED AND FINANCIALLY ASSISTED THE GOB IN ESTABLISHING A BASE FOR THE PROVISION OF FAMILY PLANNING SERVICES. IN THE FUTURE, THE USG SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE INTERNATIONAL DONORS TO PROVIDE MORE FAMILY PLANNING CLINICAL AND SUPPORTING SERVICES IN BOLIVIA. THE MISSION WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE OTHER DONORS TO ADOPT A STRATEGY TO REACH FERTILE FEMALES THROUGH A COMPREHENSIVE FOUR- CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 LA PAZ 01350 03 OF 03 172033Z COMPONENT HEALTH DELIVERY SYSTEM: COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL, MCH (ESPECIALLY FAMILY PLANNING), NUTRITION AND ENVIRONMENTAL SANITATION. 2. DECLASSIFY ONLY AFTER PRIOR REVIEW ON JANUARY 30, 1981. STEDMAN CONFIDENTIAL NNN

--- Capture Date: 01 JAN 1994 Channel Indicators: n/a Current Classification: UNCLASSIFIED Concepts: POPULATION, FAMILY PLANNING, POLICIES, PROGRAMS (PROJECTS) Control Number: n/a Copy: SINGLE Draft Date: 17 FEB 1976 Decaption Date: 01 JAN 1960 Decaption Note: n/a Disposition Action: RELEASED Disposition Approved on Date: n/a Disposition Authority: CunninFX Disposition Case Number: n/a Disposition Comment: 25 YEAR REVIEW Disposition Date: 28 MAY 2004 Disposition Event: n/a Disposition History: n/a Disposition Reason: n/a Disposition Remarks: n/a Document Number: 1976LAPAZ01350 Document Source: CORE Document Unique ID: '00' Drafter: n/a Enclosure: n/a Executive Order: GS Errors: N/A Film Number: D760059-0419 From: LA PAZ JOINT Handling Restrictions: n/a Image Path: n/a ISecure: '1' Legacy Key: link1976/newtext/t19760244/aaaabmdj.tel Line Count: '414' Locator: TEXT ON-LINE, ON MICROFILM Office: ACTION OES Original Classification: CONFIDENTIAL Original Handling Restrictions: n/a Original Previous Classification: n/a Original Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a Page Count: '8' Previous Channel Indicators: n/a Previous Classification: CONFIDENTIAL Previous Handling Restrictions: n/a Reference: 76 STATE 301427 Review Action: RELEASED, APPROVED Review Authority: CunninFX Review Comment: n/a Review Content Flags: n/a Review Date: 08 JUL 2004 Review Event: n/a Review Exemptions: n/a Review History: RELEASED <08 JUL 2004 by ellisoob>; APPROVED <21 OCT 2004 by CunninFX> Review Markings: ! 'n/a Margaret P. Grafeld US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006 ' Review Media Identifier: n/a Review Referrals: n/a Review Release Date: n/a Review Release Event: n/a Review Transfer Date: n/a Review Withdrawn Fields: n/a Secure: OPEN Status: NATIVE Subject: IMPLICATIONS OF WORLDWIDE POPULATION GROWTH FOR UNITED STATES SECURITY AND OVERSEAS INVESTMENT TAGS: SPOP, BL To: STATE Type: TE Markings: ! 'Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006 Margaret P. Grafeld Declassified/Released US Department of State EO Systematic Review 04 MAY 2006'