LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 01 LONDON 18226 01 OF 02 111904Z
44
ACTION EUR-12
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 EURE-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 USIE-00 INRE-00
CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-04 H-02 INR-07 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05
PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 COME-00 DOTE-00 EB-07 FMC-01
SAL-01 CG-00 DLOS-06 OES-06 SIL-01 LAB-04 IO-13 OMB-01
TRSE-00 /093 W
--------------------- 066816
O R 111852Z NOV 76
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7597
INFO AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
USMISSION EC BRUSSELS
USMISSION NATO BRUSSELS
USMISSION OECD PARIS
AMCONSUL EDINBURGH
AMCONSUL BELFAST
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 18226
E.O. 11652: N/A
TAGS: PINT, PDEV, UK
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT LOSES ON DOCK BILL AND IS URGED
TO REJECT FURTHER SPENDING CUTS
REFWC LONDON 18157 (NOTAL)
SUMMARY: NOVEMBER 10 WAS A BAD DAY FOR THE CALLAGHAN
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 02 LONDON 18226 01 OF 02 111904Z
GOVERNMENT. IT LOST 2 VOTES ON AMENDMENTS TO THE DOCK
WORK REGULATION BILL, WHER TWO RIGHT WING LABOR MPS
REFUSED TO SUPPORT THE GOVERNMENT. GOVERNMENT WAS
SAVED FROM DEFEAT ON THREE OTHER AMENDMENTS BY THE
SPEAKER'S CASTING VOTE. TORIES WERE DELIGHTED WITH
THIS UNEXPECTED TURN, BUT HAVE NOT SERIOUSLY ASSERTED
THAT THE GOVERNMENT'S DEFEAT SHOULD PRECIPITATE AN
ELECTION. CHANCELLOR HEALEY AND HIS ECONOMIC STRATEGY
ALSO CAME UNDER FIRE FROM LABOR AND CONSERVATIVE BACK-
BENCHERS. ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS DIRECTLY
THREATENS THE GOVERNMENT.S CONTINUATION IN OFFICE,
THEY HIGHLIGHT THE FRAGILITY OF ITS NARROW PARLIAMENT-
ARY
MAJORITY AND ITS NARROW MANEUVERING ROOM ON
ECONOMIC POLICY ISSUES. END SUMMARY.
1. HOUSE OF COMMONS CONSIDERATION OF LORDS AMENDMENTS
TO THE CONTROVERSIAL DOCK WORK REGULATION BILL SAW
THE GOVERNMENT LOSE TWO VOTES TO OVER-RIDE CHANGES IN
THE LEGISLATION. IN BOTH CASES THE GOVERNMENT WAS ON
THE SHORT END OF 308 TO 310 VOTES DUE TO ABSTENTIONS OF
RIGHT WINQ LABOR MPS BRIAN WALDEN AND JOHN MACKINTOSH.
THE TWO DISSIDENTS, HOWEVER, VOTED WITH THE GOVERNMENT
TO DEFEAT SEVERAL OTHER AMENDMENTS, THREE OF WHICH WERE
DECIDED ON THE CASTING VOTE OF THE SPEAKER. IN ALL
CASES THE SPEAKER'S VOTE FOLLOWED PARLIAMENTARY PRE-
CEDENT.
2. WA/DEN AND MACKINTOSH ABSTENTIONS CAME AS A SURPRISE
TO GOVERNMENT BUSINESS MANAGERS, SINCE THEY HAD NOT
ADVISED THE WHIPS OFFICE OF THEIR INTENTIONS.
(REFTEL ERRONEOUSLY REPORTED THAT THREE MPS HAD
ABSTAINED -- THIS WAS BASED ON AN INACCURATE PRESS
REPORT THAT FORMER HOME SECRETARY ROY JENKINS, WHO
FAILED TO TURN UP FOR ONE OF THE DIVISIONS DECIDED BY
THE SPEAKER'S VOTE, HAD BEEN ABSENT ON THE TWO VOTES
THE GOVERNMENT LOST.) KEY AMENDMENT SUSTAINED BY
COMMONS REDUCES THE LIMITS OF APPLICATION OF DOCK BILL
FROM 5 MILES TO ONE-HALF MILE FROM DOCK AREAS, GREATLY
REDUCING ITS IMPACT. BILL WILL NOW RETURN TO LORDS
WHERE GOVERNMENT WILL ATTEMPT TO RECTIFY THE EAMALE.
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 03 LONDON 18226 01 OF 02 111904Z
3. THERE WERE
EARLY REPORTS THAT DEFEATS ON THESE
AMENDMENTS MIGHT PRECIPITATE ONE DAY DOCK STRIKES IN
SOME OORTS. TRANSPORT UNION LEADER JACK JONES,
HOWEVER. FIRMLY REJECTED NATIONAL STRIKE, SAYING,
"THERE IS NO THREAT OF A NATIONAL STRIKE AS A RESULT
TF THE ACTITN IN PARLIAMENTWMZ CONTINUING' JONES TOLD
EMBOFF. "WE WILL DO EVERYTHING WE CAN THROUGH CON-
STITUTIONAL MEANS, THROUGH PARLIAMENT, TO RETRIEVE
THE SITUATION -- WE ARE NOT THREATENING A NATIONAL
STRIKE." PRIME MINISTER CALLAGHAN ECHOED JONES IN
REAFFIRMING THAT THE GOVERNMENT WOULD TRY TO RESTORE
THE BILL DURINL THE CURRENT SESSION, AND FAILING THAT
WILL INTRODUCE APPROPRIATE AMENDMENTS IN THE NEXT
PARLIAMENT.
4. THE CONSERVATIVES WERE DELIGHTED WITH THESE UN-
EXPECTED VICTORIES. ALTHOUGH SOME TORY BACK-BENCHERS
CALLED FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO RESIGN, CONSERVATIVE
LEADERS NOVEMBER 11 LIMITED THEIR ATTACKS TO DEMANDING
THAT GOVERNMENT WITHDRAW THE BILL.
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
NNN
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 01 LONDON 18226 02 OF 02 112018Z
44
ACTION EUR-12
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 EURE-00 SSO-00 NSCE-00 USIE-00 INRE-00
CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-04 H-02 INR-07 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-05
PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 COME-00 DOTE-00 EB-07 FMC-01
SAL-01 CG-00 DLOS-06 OES-06 SIL-01 LAB-04 IO-13 OMB-01
TRSE-00 /093 W
--------------------- 067855
O R 111913Z NOV 76
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7598
INFO AMEMBASSY BONN
AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG
AMEMBASSY PARIS
AMEMBASSY ROME
USMISSION EC BRUSSELS
USMISSION NATO BRUSSELS
USMISSION OECD PARIS
AMCONSUL EDINBURGH
AMCONSUL BELFAST
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE SECTION 02 OF 02 LONDON 18226
5. IN AN UNRELATED DEVELOPMENT, TRIBUNE GROUP LEADER
ARTHUR LATHAM NOVEMBER 10 ANNOUNCED THAT AN EARLY DAY
MOTION CALLING FOR THE GOVERNMENT TO REJECT FURTHER
CUTS IN SOCIAL PROGRAM SPENDING AND TO ADOPT AN ALTER-
NATIVE ECONOMIC STRATEGY HAD BEEN SIGNED BY 105 BACK-
BENCH LABOR MPS. SPECIFICALLY, THE MOTION URGES
SELECTIVE IMPORT CONTROLS, MANDATORY USE OF PLANNING
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 02 LONDON 18226 02 OF 02 112018Z
AGREEMENTS, GREATER UTILIZATION OF THE NATIONAL ENTER-
PRISE BOARD, CONTROLS ON THE OUTFLOW OF CAPITAL, AND
"A REDUCTION IN OVERSEAS MILITARY COMMITMENTS."
WHILE MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR THIS MOTION CAME FROM
LEFT-WINGERS, IT WAS ALSO ENDORSED BY A NUMBER OF
MODERATES AND RIGHT-WINGERS. MEMBERS OF THE MANIFESTO
GROUP TOLD EMBOFF THAT IF ASKED THEY TOO WOULD HAVE
SIGNED THE MOTION, INDICATING THAT IT HAS BROAD SUPPORT
AMONG LABOR MPS. TORY BACK-BENCHERS, NOT TO BE OUT-
DONE, ALSO TABLED AN EARLY DAY MOTION EXPRESSING NO
CONFIDENCE IN CHANCELLOR HEALEY.
6. COMMENT: WHILE WE HAD EXPECTED THE GOVERNMENT
WOULD FAIL TO OVER-RIDE SOME OF THE LORDS AMENDMENTS,
ITS LOSS ON THE KEY QUESTION OF THE DOCK BILL'S AREA
OF APPLICATION CLEARLY DEMONSTRATED ITS VULNERABILITY
TO ATTACK FROM ITS OWN RIGHT- AND LEFT-WINGS. THE
ISSUE, HOWEVER, WAS NOT SERIOUS IN TERMS OF LABOR'S
ABILITY TO REMAIN IN POWER, AS EVEN THE TORY LEADERSHIP
SEEMED TO ACKNOWLEDGE, OR ITS SUBSTANTIVE LEGISLATIVE
PROGRAM. WE DOUBT THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE ABLE TO
REGAIN THE GROUND IT LOST ON THIS BILL, AT LEAST IN THE
CURRENT PARLIAMENT, AND SHOULD CONSIDER ITSELF LUCKY
IF IT IS ABLE TO AVOID FURTHER AND MORE SERIOUS REVERSES
ON PENDING LEGISLATION. THE EARLY DAY MOTIONS, WHILE
GOOD INDICATORS OF BACK-BENCH OPINION, WILL NOT BE
DEBATED AND ARE OF LITTLE OPERATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE.
THE LABOR BACK-BENCH INITIATIVE, WE UNDERSTAND. WAS
DESIGNED TO STRENGTHEN THE GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO
RESIST IMF PRESSURES FOR LARGE CUTS IN PUBLIC SPENDING.
TO INFLUENCE THE CONTENT OF THE QUEEN'S SPEECH
OPENING THE NEXT PARLIAMENT AND TO RESPOND TO LAST
WEEK'S BY-ELECTION LOSSES. THE GOVERNMENT WOULD
OBVIOUSLY MUCH PREFER LOYAL SUPPORT IN THE DIVISION
LOBBIES TO THIS KIND OF ECONOMIC ADVICE FROM BACK-
BENCHERS.
ARMSTRONG
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
NNN