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ACTION ARA-10
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-04 H-02 INR-07 L-03
NSAE-00 NSC-05 PA-01 PRS-01 SP-02 SS-15 NSCE-00
SSO-00 USIE-00 INRE-00 SAB-01 /052 W
--------------------- 108713
O R 072222Z OCT 76
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9338
INFO PANCANAL
USCINCSO
USUN NEW YORK 577
C O N F I D E N T I A L PANAMA 6953
E.O. 11652: GDS
TAGS: PGOV, PN
SUBJECT: PLANS FOR OCTOBER 11 CELEBRATIONS
1. THE PRESS ON WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 6, BELATEDLY BEGAN TO
BALLYHOO THE CELEBRATION ON OCTOBER 11 OF THE EIGHT ANNIVERSARY
OF THE "REVELUTION".
2. AFTER WEEKS OF BACKING AND FILLING THE GOVERNMENT OF PANAMA
ANNOUNCED THAT THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY OF COMMUNITY REPRESENTATIVES
WOULD BE INAUGURATED IN THE DOWNTOWN PANAMA JUSTO AROSEMENA
BUILDING (LEGISLATIVE PALACE). PRESIDENT LAKAS IS LISTED AS A
SPEAKER ON THE PROGRAM WHICH HAS APPEARED IN THE PRESS.
TORRIJOS IS NOT ON THE PUBLISHED PROGRAM, BUT HE TOLD A U.S.
MILITARY LIAISON OFFICER AT 11 A.M., OCTOBER 7, THAT HE WOULD
SPEAK AND HE WOULD HAVE SOME ANTI-AMERICAN REMARKS, BUT WE
SHOULD NOT BECOME TOO EXERCISED. TORRIJOS, WHO LIKES TO SPEAK
EXTEMPORANEOUSLY, IS CAPABLE OF EITHER MAKING THIS PRO FORMA OR
OF BECOMING VERY UNPLEASANT. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY
THAT HE MIGHT TRY TO AIM A MOB IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ZONE OR THE
EMBASSY, PARTICULARLY IF THE ASSEMBLED MASSES SHOULD BECOME OBSTRE-
PEROUSLY ANTI-GOVERNMENT. THE REMARKS ABOUT THE PANAMA CANAL BY
GOVERNOR CARTER IN THE DEBATE OCTOBER 6 MIGHT WELL HAVE
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GIVEN THE GENERAL A CERTAIN INCLINATION IN THAT DIRECTION.
HOWEVER, THE ANNOUNCEMENT OCTOBER 7 OF THE IMPENDING RETURN OF
THE NEGOTIATORS SHOULD DIMINISH SUCH A POSSIBILITY TO THE
VANISHING POINT.
3. THE PANAMANIAN AUTHORITIES HAVE SET FOR THEMSELVES A GOAL
OF 70,000 DEMONSTRATORS, BUT U.S. INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES OF
THE PROBABLE CROWD RANGE FROM 20,000 TO 35,000. THOUGH THERE
HAS BEEN NO OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT, MANY GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES ARE
BEING TOLD THAT THEY SHOULD "COME TO WORK", I.E. SHOW UP FOR THE
DEMONSTRATION, MONDAY MORNING. PANAMANIANS ARE GIVEN TO
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LONG WEEKENDS TO TAKE OFF FOR THE BEACHES
AND OTHER RESORT AREAS. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT MINISTRIES ARE
BEING GIVEN QUOTAS OF EMPLOYEES WHO MUST SHOW UP AND THAT IN SOME
CASES A ROLL WILL BE CALLED.
4. THERE ARE NO RELIABLE REPORTS THAT STUDENT GROUPS--ANTI OR
PRO-GOVERNMENT--WILL TRY TO TURN THE DEMONSTRATIONS TO THEIR
OWN PARTICULAR PURPOSES. SOME LEFTIST ANTI GOVERNMENT STUDENTS
ARE, HOWEVER, DISTRIBUTING LEAFLETS BLAMING THE GOVERNMENT FOR
REPRESSION AND THE HIGH COST OF LIVING. THERE IS A GOOD POS-
SIBILITY OF VIOLENCE BY ANTI-GOVERNMENT ELEMENTS, BUT THE
NATIONAL GUARD CAN HANDLE THEM IF IT IS SO INCLINED.
5. THE JUSTO AROSEMENA BUILDING IS LOCATED ON THE VERY BORDER
WITH THE CANAL ZONE. JUST BEHIND IT IS THE SHALER TRIANGLE--A
SMALL SLICE OF THE ZONE WHICH JUTS INTO PANAMA CITY. CROWDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GATHER IN THIS AREA, AS WELL AS IN PANAMA CITY IN
FRONT OF JUSTO AROSEMENA. THE NATIONAL GUARD HAS ASKED MAJOR
GENERAL HAROLD R. PARFITT, GOVERNOR OF THE CANAL ZONE, TO TURN
OVER THE PATROLLING AND CROWD CONTROL OF ADJACENT FOURTH OF
JULY AVENUE (WHICH IS WITHIN, BUT FORMS THE BORDER OF, THE ZONE)
TO NATIONAL GUARD POLICE. GOVERNOR PARFITT HAS AGREED TO A
JOINT PATROLLING OF THE AREA DURING THE DEMONSTRATION, BUT WITH
ZONE POLICEMEN EXCLUSIVELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MOVEMENT OF TRAFFIC
TO THE TWO ENTRANCES TO THE ZONE CLOSEST TO THE SITE OF THE
DEMONSTRATION. THE GUARD ALSO ASKED THAT THE PANAMANIAN AND
AMERICAN FLAGS WHICH FLY SIDE BY SIDE ON SHALER TRIANGLE NOT
BE FLOWN DURING THE CEREMONIES. THE GOVERNOR IS STILL
CONSIDERING THIS REQUEST.
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YM COMMENT: THERE HAD BEEN CONFUSION ABOUT THE GOVERNMENT'S PLANS
FOR OCTOBER 11 PRIOR TO THE RECENT ANNOUNCEMENT. THE DECISION TO HOLD
THE CEREMONY IN THE JUSTO AROSEMENA BUILDING RAISES A NUMBER OF
INTERESTING QUESTIONS. THERE IS A CERTAIN LOGIC TO IT SINCE
THE ASSEMBLY PASSES FOR A SORT OF LEGISLATURE UNDER THE PRESENT
PANAMANIAN CONSTITUTION. BUT THE CHOICE OF A SITE CHOCKABLOCK
WITH THE ZONE HAS LED TO SPECULATION THAT THE PANAMANIAN AUTHORITIES
MAY HAVE AN UNPLEASANT SUPRISE UP THEIR SLEEVES. LAST YEAR THE
OCTOBER 11 CEREMONY WAS HELD IN A LARGE GYMNASIUM COMFORTABLY
DISTANT FROM THE CENTER OF TOWN AND THE ZONE.
7. BEYOND THE STANDARD FARE OF GETTING BACK JURISDICTION OF
THE ZONE, WE DO NOT KNOW WHAT TORRIJOS WILL SAY. THERE ARE
REPORTS THAT EITHER TORRIJOS OR PRESIDENT LAKAS MAY ANNOUNCE
SOME NEW TAXES AND/OR A TIGHTENING UP OF THE LABOR CODE--BOTH
OF WHICH WOULD BE UNPOPULAR WITH MOST PANAMANIANS. FORMATION
OF A PRO-GOVERNMENT "MOVEMENT" OR PARTY MAY ALSO BE ANNOUNCED.
8. THERE IS HARDLY A WHIFF OF EXCITEMENT IN THE AIR ABOUT
OCTOBER 11 THIS YEAR. THE GOVERNMENT IS SPONSORING THE
CELEBRATION (DESPITE SOME FEARS THAT ANTI-GOVERNMENT ELEMENTS
MIGHT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT TO STIR UP TROUBLE) BECAUSE THEY HAVE
NO ALTERNATIVE. NOT TO PERFORM THIS RITUAL DANCE WOULD BE TO ADMIT
THAT THE SEVOLUTION HAS LOST ITS SUPPORT.
JORDEN
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