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O 150910Z MAY 76
FM SECSTATE WASHDC
TO JCS IMMEDIATE
SECDEF IMMEDIATE
CIA IMMEDIATE
WHITE HOUSE IMMEDIATE
DIRNSA IMMEDIATE
DIA IMMEDIATE
TREASURY IMMEDIATE
DOD IMMEDIATE
USCG IMMEDIATE
C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 119732
E.O. 11652, GDS
TAGS: PFOR
SUBJECT: MORNING SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT REPORTS
1. JAPAN: OPEN SEASON ON MIKI?
ACCORDING TO EMBASSY TOKYO, A SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO PRIME MIN-
ISTER MIKI HAS BEEN TOUCHED OFF BY MAY 13 PRESS REPORTS THAT
LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (LDP) FACTION LEADERS HAVE AGREED
THAT MIKI SHOULD RETIRE SOON. HOWEVER, THE EMBASSY NOTES
THAT THE CHALLENGERS:
--WHILE DISSATISFIED WITH MIKI, HAVE NOT AGREED ON A
SUCCESSOR; AND
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--ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FINDING A PLAUSIBLE JUSTIFICA-
TION FOR ,RETIRING" MIKI.
EMBASSY COMMENT: THE KEY TO THE PRESENT SITUATION IS DEPUTY
PRIME MINISTER FUKUDA, WHO HAS AVOIDED A PUBLIC BREAK WITH
MIKI. WHILE MOST OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THE CURRENT CHAL-
LENGE IS PREMATURE, WE HAVE APPARENTLY HEARD THE FIRST SHOT
IN WHAT PROMISES TO BE A LONG AND CONFUSED BATTLE. (CONFI-
DENTIAL) TOKYO 7179, 5/14.)
2. ANGOLA: ARE THE CUBANS CUTTING BACK?
THE FRENCH FOREIGN MINISTRY, CITING REPORTS FROM ITS EM-
BASSY IN HAVANA, TOLD EMBASSY PARIS THAT THE CUBANS ARE
PLANNING TO START REPATRIATING TROOPS FROM ANGOLA AT THE
RATE OF 250 PER WEEK. ACCORDING TO THE FRENCH, THE CUBANS:
--CLAIM TO HAVE 20,000 TROOPS PRESENTLY IN ANGOLA; AND
--PLAN TO BEEF UP THEIR TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO THE
NEW REGIME.
IN THE QUAI'S ANALYSIS, THE CUBANS FEEL A NEED TO DO SOME-
THING IN ORDER TO REASSURE MODERATES IN THE NON-ALIGNED
BLOC, ESPECIALLY IN AFRICA AND LATIN AMERICA. NEVERTHELESS,
THE FRENCH PREDICT THAT THE CUBANS WILL GET INVOLVED IN
RHODESIA AS DEEPLY AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE THEY FEEL THEY HAVE
AN IMPECCABLE POSITION. THE QUAI ALSO CONCLUDES THAT THE
CUBANS ARE PULLING MOSCOW RELUCTANTLY ALONG IN THIS AREA.
(CONFIDENTIAL) PARIS 14284, 5/14.)
3. A TORY ALTERNATIVE FOR THE BRITISH ECONOMY
SHADOW CHANCELLOR SIR GEOFFREY HOWE OUTLINED THE CONSERVA-
TIVE PARTY'S ECONOMIC STRATEGY IN A MAY 12 SPEECH. SIR
GEOFFREY SAID THE CURRENT PRICES AND INCOMES POLICY OF THE
LABOR GOVERNMENT:
--MAY BE TEMPORARILY EXPEDIENT IN ORDER TO CURB INFLA-
TIONARY EXPECTATIONS; BUT
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--IN THE LONG RUN MAKES NORMAL FUNCTIONING OF THE
LABOR MARKET IMPOSSIBLE.
ALTERNATIVELY, A FUTURE TORY GOVERNMENT WOULD:
--STRICTLY CONTROL GROWTH OF THE MONEY SUPPLY;
--PERSUADE THE TRADE UNIONS TO ACCEPT THE NEED FOR
MONETARY DISCIPLINE;
--REDUCE PUBLIC SPENDING AND BORROWING; AND
--RELAX PRICE CONTROLS AND PERMIT INDUSTRY TO INCREASE
PROFITS.
EMBASSY COMMENT: THIS SPEECH WILL PROVIDE A RALLYING POINT
FOR THE CONSERVATIVES AND AMMUNITION FOR ECONOMIC DEBATES
IN COMMONS, BUT ITS SUBSTANCE IS LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM
CURRENT GOVERNMENT POLICY. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SIR
GEOFFREY AND CHANCELLOR DENNIS HEALEY ARE OVER THE DEGREE
AND TIMING OF NEEDED RESTRAINTS, RATHER THAN LONG-TERM AIMS.
(LIMITED OFFICIAL USE) LONDON 7503, 5/14.) KISSINGER
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