1. ALL JANUARY 9 MAJOR MORNING NEWSPAPERS DELAYED PRESS RUNS TO
FRONT PAGE AN AP DISPATCH DATELINED TOKYO JANUARY 9 REPORTING THE
DEATH OF CHOU EN-LAI. THE DISPATCH WAS CARRIED IN A RELATIVELY
STRAIGHT-FORWARD MANNER, BUT A JANUARY 10 CNA BIOGRAPHY OF
CHOU REFLECTED THE GROC'S VIEW OF HIS ROLE IN MAINLAND
POLITICS AND CHARACTERISES HIM AS "TOADYING" TO LIN PIAO
AND "CURRYING THE FAVOR" OF CHIANG CHING.
2. CHOU'S DEATH WAS ALSO THE SUBJECT OF SEVERAL EDITORIALS
AND SPECIAL ARTICLES ON JANUARY 9-10. REPORTEDLY, THERE
WAS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG "LOCAL EXPERTS ON CHINESE
COMMUNIST AFFAIRS" THAT CHOU'S DEATH WAS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE
GREAT IMPACT ON THE PRC'S SUCCESSION PROBLEM OR ITS FOREIGN
POLICY BUT THAT HIS DEATH MAY PRESENT MAO TSE-TUNG WITH
MANY PROBLEMS.
3. FORMER DIRECTOR OF THE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL
RELATIONS HAN LI-WU (2635/4539/2976) WAS QUOTED AS SAYING
THAT COU'S DEATH "WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED IMPACT ON THE REGIME'S
SUCCESSION PROBLEM." NOTING THAT CHOU COULD HAVE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 02 TAIPEI 00224 121040Z
ACTED AS A "TRANSITION LINK" BETWEEN THE OLD AND THE NEW
LEADERSHIP IF HE SURVIVED MAO, HAN REPORTEDLY SAID THAT
"NOW MAO WILL HAE TO ASSUME THE BURDEN OF THE SUCCESSION
PROBLEM PERSONALLY. THAT WOULD COMPLICATE THE SITUATION."
ALTHOUGH HAN REPORTEDLY DOES NOT EXPECT ANY CHANGE IN PRC
FOREIGN POLICY IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE OR ANY
SPECTACULAR DEVELOPMENT IN US/PRC RELATIONS TIS YEAR, HE
NOTED THAT THE LOSS OF CHOU'S EXPERIENCE WOULD BE FELT
MORE ACUTELY IN THE AREA OF PRC FOREIGN POLICY SINCE TENG
HSIAO-PING IS "LESS EXPERIENCED AND LESS CAPABLE OF TAKING
INITIATIVES" AND THE TENG-KISSINGER RELATIONSHIP "IS FAR
FROM CORDIAL."
5. ANOTHER UNIDENTIFIED "EXPERT" REPORTEDLY TOLD CNA THAT
CHOU'S DEATH WILL PROBABLY AFFECT THE US/PRC NORMALIZATION
PROCESS AND SECRETARY KISSINGER'S PRESTIGE SINCE CHOU'S
DIPLOMATIC TRICKS DELUDED MANY FOREIGNERS AND HIS RELATIONS
WITH KISSINGER WERE UNIQUE.
6. MND SPOKESMAN GNERAL LI CHANG-HAO (2621/7022/3185)
WAS QUOTED AS SAYING THAT WHILE THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN
THE NATURE OF THE PRC REGIME, THE DEATH OF CHOU WILL AGGRAVATE
INTERNAL CHAOS AND MAO WILL SOON APPEAL FOR STABILITY
AND UNITY. AND "LOCAL EXPERT" LEGISLATOR LI TIEN-MIN
(2621/1131/3046) REPORTEDLY SAID THAT CHOU'S DEATH DOES NOT
REPRESENT A CHANGE IN PRC POLICY SINCE CHOU WAS NOT A POLICY-
MAKER BUT A POLICY -EXECUTIONER. "CHOU HAD NO PEER WITHIN
THE CHINESE COMMUNIST HIERARCHY AS A NIMBLE FOREIGN POLICY
EXECUTIVE. HE HAD CERTAIN PERSONAL CHARMS THAT MANY PEOPLE
HAD FOUND IRRESISTIBLE."
7. EDITORIAL COMMENT IN GNERAL FOLLOWED THE VIEWS OF "LOCAL
EXPERTS" QUOTED ABOVE.
8. COMMENT: ROC OFFICIALS HAVE NOT VOLUNTEERED TO EMBOFFS ANY
COMMENT ON CHOU'S PASSING. AS CASUAL OPPORTUNITIES HAVE ARISEN
AT SOCIAL FUNCTIONS CHARGE HAS ATTEMPTED TO ELICIT VIEWS OF
SEVERAL SENIOR MILITARY AND CIVILIAN OFFICIALS WITHOUT MUCH
SUCCESS, ALTHOUGH ALL PROFESSED TO BELIEVE THAT CHOU'S DEPARTURE
FROM THE SCENE WILL HAVE NO IMMEDBIATE IMPACE ON PRC POLICY.
GEORGE YEH, MINISTER W/O PORTFOLIO, SIMPLY COMMENTED THAT "TENG
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
PAGE 03 TAIPEI 00224 121040Z
HSIAO-PING'S EFFORTS TO CONSOLIDATE HIS POSITION MAY BE HELPED
OR HARMED-- IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL." MINISTER CHOU SHU-K'AI
THOUGHT THAT CHOU'S LONG ILLNESS HAD GIVEN CHICOMS PLENTY OF
TIME TO PREPARE FOR HIS PASSING AND EXPECTED NO IMPORTANT
MODIFICATIONS IN PRC FOREIGN OR DOMESTIC POLICIES. GENERAL LAI
MING-T'ANG POINTED OUT THAT "WANG HUNG-WEN IS NOW NO.2 IN
CHICOM PARTY AND WOULD HAVE TO BE WATCHED MORE CLOSELY NOW THAT
CHOU IS GONE" (LAI PLACES WANG IN RADICAL CAMP, SERVING
INTERESTS OF CHIANG CHING AS OPPOSED TO THOSE OF "MODERATE"
CHOU EN-LAI).
POPPLE
LIMITED OFFICIAL USE
NNN